This blog is aiming to explore the inner psychology of the odds before the start of a match.

When and why are they moving??

Can we take advantage of this movement??

Saturday, January 2, 2010

1st CASE STUDY: Wigan - Aston Villa @ January 9 2010

Aston Villa at the exchanges today can be backed at 2.44 . Wigan is a fighting home team but i feel that punters near the day of the match will back the villans. So what happens when punters back hugely a team??

Answer: Aston Villa' s price will go doooooooooooowwwwwwwwnnnnn. Don't get greedy, look for 2-5 ticks. Also set your stop loss also at 2 ticks.

Attention!!! I am posting before the start of the FA CUP games between Aston Villa vs Blackburn and Wigan vs Hull. If Aston Villa today has a bad result, will make the 2.44 (price of the match with Wigan) drift to the opposite direction. If Wigan today has a bad game with Hull I expect the price
of the match with Aston Villa to move early.

So if there is decent liquidity I would open my position accordingly as i watch live the game between Aston Villa vs Blackburn and Wigan vs Hull.

Update 3.1.2010 Aston Villa's odds are shortening. Now we could lay at 2.42 but lets see what happens if we wait a little more...

Update 5.1.2010 Aston Villa' s price is drifting to the opposite direction. Lay has raised up to 2.48 with a tension to rise even higher. On the other hand other bookies are keeping the odds down to 2.3 (Expect) and 2.15 (
William Hill). Let's see what will happen at the day of the match...

Update 7.1.2010 Aston Villa s price is going again down. Now punters can back at 2.42

Update 9.1.2010: Match has been POSTPONED due to failure of the heating system at the stadium.

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