Pre Match Trading | Kerkyra - Panathinaikos

Great opportunity after yesterdays Olympiakos defeat for Panathinaikos fans. Psychology of the fans is a great factor for pre match trading so we must take advantage of it! Panathinaikos odds against Kerkyra where last night at 1,74 (Back). After last night's Olympiakos defeat from AEK, the greatest rival for the Greek Superleague (Panathinaikos) has the biggest opportunity to win Kerkyra and to go straight into the first place of the greek classification.This is why the odds are droping! Panathinaikos already has a new coach at his bench and this has changed many things in this team.

So I will follow the trend backing Panathinaikos at 1,70.

Update 1 Odds keep falling...

Martingale's betting technique - Danger!

Martingale's betting technique - May I ?

Every betting system will boost your earnings if used in combination with a staking plan. I'm certain right now there are punters around who will say that they came up with a reliable method that one could wager always the same amount with the same profit every time, however you'll find hardly anyone  to generate income using this method. Without doubt punters will experience several losing bets or trades and any revenue could easily fly away. This scenario it could be more painful if a punter is following a 'laying' system where he is taking action as being the bookie and provide odds on a final result that is not possible to happen.
Certainly the most awful staking plan according to my opinion is the well known Martingale betting technique! According to the myth, Mr Martingale appeared to be a gambler who came out with an "always winning" staking plan to always make profit at roulette. The pattern was going like this: Mr Martingale was betting €5 on red to win. If the ball stopped on black loosing the bet, he doubled his bet to €10 and then €20 and so on. By this pattern the gambler has to carry on doubling his bet till he make a winner and this only for winning his initial bet of €5. For people who do not know anything about roulette it would sound a foolproof system!! And even a bank saving technique! Ok all this until you loose everything! After some winning runs of winning €5 the loosing strikes will come over and gamblers will ruin the entire bank. The martingale betting technique could make a gambler to bet unbelievable numbers as €640, €1280 to win just €5. Why? It is simple, because a roulette hasn't got a memory! Practically the same colour can come over and over again even 13,14,15,16 (and even more) times in a raw...    Without an endless bank (hey is that possible?) Mr Martingale should, without a doubt, lose everything!
Defending your betting bank is the essential factor of success and every staking plan requires to take under consideration many strategical parameters. The consistency of winning results is a major issue here. The size of a punters bank in conjunction with a bad attitude to risk, could cause the end of a gambler’s carrier. When bets get up to a big percentage of the bank who is going to have the nerve to carry on?
Stay away from Mr Martingale's betting roulette tactic...


Is trading a sport event odds the same as gambling on a roulette...? Could a trader use the martingale staking plan to profit...? Could we implement an exit strategy from Martingale’s betting technique adopted in trading....? Stay tuned ;)

Deportivo vs Zaragoza

Huge fall of Zaragoza's odds from 3:00 (back) to 2,70 (lay). There is plenty of space for the odds to go further down..

Update 1 It is a bit tricky 30 min before the kick off, watch out for traders closing their position, it could make the odds to go up (because they will lay Zaragoza).
Set a 3 tick stop loss

Update 2

Update 3 It went down to 2,58 (lay)

Atletico Madrid vs Tenerife

Huge movement at Atletico' s match today for the primera division!!! Backing Atletico went from 1,80 to 2,00!!! I see further higher movement here. Good opportunity! Good liquidity!!

                     
Update WOWWWWWWWWWW Now went at 2,14, not much time to wait here!!! I am out of thisssssss. I don't want to be greedy!!

 This is a fantastic rally.  This trend is straight forward no surprises for the pre match trader.

UDINESE VS BOLOGNA

Huge movement concerning Udinese's odds!!! From 2,25 they have fallen to 2,02!!! Damn sleep!! I have missed this one.
I will try to find out if there is any other further space for the odds to go down.
Liquidity is good.
I will back Udinese setting my stop loss at 3 ticks.

Update1: It is going downnnnnnnn yeahhh, now at 1,99 (Lay).
Due to family obligations, I am closing the trade here with a 15 euros green in all incomes.
Have a nice trading day!

ONLINE BETTING ON SOCCER

If you are a football trader or a punter who is  getting involved with online betting on soccer, then you already have expirience of how discouraging can be to place in a big deal of money on a certain team and not winning anything. That is why it is very importand to learn and implement even just a couple of strategy tips about the way to get some profit in football trading or betting. It is not very smart to invest on an event without making any money, so you better find out some football betting or trading strategies before you risk all your income on a certain team.

If you wish to find out the way to make some profit in online betting on soccer, it is essential to discover how to handle your money in a proper way. At the time that you will be capable to develop a money management system, it would be less complicated for you to analyze and handle risks, making it easier for you to earn money. Many punters are not able to realize that to gain money in football trading means learning the way to figure how much profit they can gain by knowing the risks and rewards that comes with a certain match up.

Usually, punters lose their bankroll in football trading / betting  because they are risking all their bank on a single game event. It is pure maddness to bet the whole bank on a single team or on a single game event.

Some other way to win in soccer betting is observing and being well-informed. Getting in touch with important team information will make you able you to formulate smart predictions on what an football event can end up with. So learn the variety of the different conditions that can affect on a football match so you can better evaluate whether or not a team has a big potential for winning a certain football event.

Online betting on soccer can assist you win money and it can be as well a great way to lose the whole or a small part of your bank. If you desire to learn the way to win in football trading, then begin to educate yourself today.

BLACKPOOL VS NOTTINGHAM FOREST

Very interesting movement at Blackpool's odds as over night they have fallen from 2,20 (lay) to 2,14 (back). I will follow the trend entering in the market backing Blackpool at 2,14. The only problem here is the liquidity that is medium but it is obvious that the market is going to get money during Saturday.

Update 1 Yeahhhhhhhhh!!! I ve closed the trade at 2,04!!!! That was GOOOD!!

TOTTENHAM VS CHELSEA

I see interesting movement at Saturdays game between Tottenham and Chelsea. I will follow Chelsea's odds as the odds were moving from 2.1 to 1.93. I see potential here and the odds are going to move up and down during the next hours till the match.

I will open  my position laying Chelsea at 1,93.

Excellent liquidity

I will have an eye on both teams news

Update1: Already Chelsea can be backed at 1,96. I am not planning to close the trade yet.

Update2: Now it can be backed at 1,97.

I am out for a small profit of 20 euros. Not bad for doing and risking nothing.

Voila

I AM ABROAD

Since I am abroad for working reasons, I will update next week as soon as I return back home.

Take care!

Pre Match Trading - Saturday's Selection

Today I will focus in one match as I see some potential for pre match trading.

The game is Everton vs Man Utd. There is already some movement with Man Utds odds going up and down. I am going to do some scalping here given that there is not yet a clear trend in the market.

Everton lost Tim Cahill by an injury Marouane Fellaini is out for the rest of the seasion due to an ankle injury. Man Utd will be without suspended duo Rio Ferdinand and Nani.
Nemanja Vidic is back in the team and could play for the first time this year after been hit by a nerve problem in his leg.

Other matches that I will have an eye at:

1) Mainz vs Bochum

2) Ancona vs Padova

3) Ergotelis vs Olympiacos

Pre-Match Trading - The return!!!

After a very hard week at work that forced me to stay away from writing to my blog, I return hungry for new trading adventures!!!

Lets see what we have for today...

1) Hoffenheim vs Mgladbach. The home team odds are going up!!!Yesterday they were at 1,84 and today morning they went up to 1,90. Medium liquidity. I would follow the trend even if I wont be able to match a big stake here (due to the medium liquidity)

2) Bielefeld vs Duisburg. The home teams odds are falling. They were up to 2,00 and today morning have fallen to 1,94.Poor Liquidity. Small stake also here.

3) Brescia vs Ascoli. By now the market hasn't got much money to get matched so I am going to wait a little more. I think that there will be some movement here. Brescia at the last 6 home games has only one (1) draw and five (5) wins. This is going to affect the odds. I will wait to hear both teams news for injuries.

I will set my stop loss at 3 ticks.

Update: 4 ticks profit from Hoffenheim and 3 from Bielefeld.  Great Return!!!! I did not open position at Brescia's match because of the low liquidity of the market.

Nothing for Today

Nothing interesting for today...

Yesterday's profit from pre match trading

Yesterday our profit:

: 

Ok I know, I did not get rich :)

Sunday's Selection

After some very hard times at work, today  I ve managed to get back home in order to rest a bit with my family. After the previous week, I need to perform a brain format.
Today there are plenty of matches to choose from but I will focus only on one match:

Bolton vs Tottenham fo the FA Cup. Tottenhams odds are falling from 2,14 (back). Liquidity is great!!
Bolton faces injury problems as Gary Cahill, Ivan Klasnic, Sean Davis and Gavinm Mc Cann are out from today's match.
For Totenham Luka Modric is a doubt so if later news about Mondric change, surely this will affect the odds.

Update: Nice profit, I dont want to get greedy so I am closing my position here at 2,08 (Lay)

TOO MUCH WORK

Today as I am having too much work at my office, I wont be able to study the odds.
Its a pitty because at my lunch break hour, I saw some nice movements at Arsenal's, Man Utd's and Tottenham's odds.

DISCIPLINE KEEPS THE BANK SAFE

People who are reading my blog from the start, know by now that one of my bigger concerns is to keep safe my bank.

Keeping the bank safe is helping the trader to avoid anxiety and depression of losing his capital. Ok I know nobody wants or like to lose but the fact is that the plurality (more than 95%) of punters all over the world are losing money every day, more and more till they end consuming their whole bank.

Trading before the start of a match is not a practice that can make the trader wealthy in a week or in a month or in a year but surely under the condition that the trader is following with discipline some "safe" rules, can help keep and why not build up his bankroll. Some punters believe that is easier to generate steady and significant daily income from a big bank than from a small bank.

In my opinion, if a trader is not disciplined, then pre-match trading is needless and can as well as other betting strategies lead him to bankruptcy.

so...:

• ...test your strategy. Testing will lead you to...
• ...set clear rules on your strategy ( for example set your stop loss to some specific ticks, find the factors you can rely before opening your position, set a percentage of your bank that you are going to trade with e.t.c.) and...
• ...keep yourself disciplined following your rules.

 "self-discipline"

Remember you cannot win every day and is inevitable to lose...so try when you lose not to destroy your bank...and something else also important...

...don't try to catch your losses, stop, reconsider, study what went wrong and trade again the next day. 

BETFAIR IS DOWN

No news till Betfair is up again

BETTING SECRETS

Some of the first betting secrets i have ever learn' t (the bad way) is that I must never bet or trade if:
1) I am not in the mood
2) if the markets have nothing interesting for betting or trading.

Today there is nothing interesting for me in the football markets so I will not trade at all.

But I will make some comments for today's matches:

• At Galipoli's match probably is going to change the favorite as Grosseto's odds are going down. Nope, I wont touch it.
• 1860 Munich's odds were going down. Nooope I am not interested.

I am going to hold my horses

Trading Without Risking The Bank

This is what I call trading without risking the bank.

 Profit at all incomes before the start of the match.

Update1: In order to be more accurate to what I am posting here, I have corrected the header and the text of this post according to the comments below  (see the comments here)

Sunday Early Match, 7.2.2010

After yesterday's big success I will consentrate in one early match for today:

Birmingham vs Wolves, the home team odds are climbing high from 1,91 (Lay)!! Great liquidity!!

Lets see how it will be today

Update 1: Urahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!! I love it! Now its up to 2(Back) and I am out!!! I do not want to get greedy as I have broken my rules trading with the 60% of my whole bankroll here in one match. As I have already posted in the past, usually I trade with the 60% of my bank spreading the risk over three matches.

I am already out but the odds can climb more. 

Here is the rally:

PRE-MATCH TRADING 6.2.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today we have many interesting games to follow. For the early matches:

1) Liverpool vs Everton, the home teams odds are moving up from 1,90 (Lay). Great liquidity. We deal with a big derby here and the odds are going to move further (could be at any direction so be ready to change position).

2) Wolsburg vs Bayern, Bayern's odds are moving up (slightly). Wolfburg this year  has played some very poor games at home so Punters will definitely back Bayern Munich. I am waiting for a movement here. Great liquidity

3) Triestina vs Sassuolo, Sassuolo is at the head of the division (serie B) and I think that at 3,15 the odds are too high. Here it could change the favourite. The bad thing about this match is that the liquidity is very poor and big stakes won't get matched. I will open my position with smaller stake and if the liquidity gets better I will reconsider.

Update1: Awsome profit with Liverpool!!! 

Bayern is going well as it seems that punters were backing and made the odds to fall.

Nothing on Sassuolo yet but I do not mind because i could get matched only 100 euros. I will wait a little more for Sassuolo closing my position on the others with a nice profit. Good stuff for only 3 hours watching!!
Update 2: Closing position at Sassuolo with loss. The draw odds has fallen causing upward trends at both teams odds. 

Positive balance 

TODAY 4.2.2010

I don't see any interesting movements at today's matches.

Anyway I will watch them continuously and I will post if something significant happens

PRE-MATCH TRADING 3.2.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today there are several interesting matches: I will be following:

1) Fulham vs Portsmouth, the home teams odds moved up from 1,80 (Lay). Now they are having a falling trend from 1,90 to 1,86 (back). Great liquidity. I will be trading on the trends

2) Blackpool vs West Brom, West Brom's odds are moving down from 2,45 to 2,3. Now it seems that the odds have stoped moving but probably near the kick off a rally could start again . Great liquidity

3) Leeds vs Tottenham, Tottemham's odds are moving up from 1,90, I am following this trend as well!!! I expect nice movent here.Great liquidity.

I don't forget to set my exit strategy to 2-3 ticks and be disciplined.

Update 1. Great upwards trend for Fulham' odds now at 1,94. Thatssss great!!! 
Update 2. Great downwards moving for Tottenham' s odds from 1,97 now they are at 1,89. Thats a nice day!!!

TODAY 2.2.2010

As I am ill today I will not be trading. 

tomorrow :)

PRE-MATCH TRADING 1.2.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Poor variety of matches today. I will be following:
1) Sunderland vs Stoke, the home teams odds are moving up from 2,20. Great liquidity
2) Bury vs Rochdale, Rochdale's odds are moving down from 2,56. Medium liquidity

I will be watching for an opportunity at Ravenna and Kerkyra.
At the match between Aachen vs Kaiserslautern could occur a change of the favorite watch out.

Movements usually are bigger as the kick off time is approaching

Update 1 Rochdale after the down movement which have generated a small 3 tick profit, now is going up. I will follow the new trend.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 31.1.2010

Big movement at Arsenal vs Manchester Utd. The home teams odds have fallen from 2,7 to 2,50. It has some air to fall further.

TODAY 30.1.2010 TESTING NEW THINGS IN PRE-MATCH TRADING

Today I will alterate a bit of my strategy just for testing reasons. I will watch odds movements and i will try to trade the odds within the hour before the kick off.
Lets see...

PRE-MATCH TRADING 29.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Not a good variety of matches today. Till now we do not have any significant movements at the odds.

I will be watching Hamburg Fortuna, Duisburg and G Furt's odds as the kick off time approaches...

Update1 Duisburg is going down from 2,64 (back) to  2,56 (lay) good liquidity

PRE-MATCH TRADING 28.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Big movement at Ghana vs Nigerias odds!!! Nigerias odds are going dowwwwwwwwn!! In this case we had a change on the favourite!!! 20 minutes before tha start of the game.

Here is a photo of the rally

Update 1: I am not really interested in today's matches. Only at Atletico Madrits match there was some movement that i could not take advantage of.

Maybe some movement is going to occur later. I will have an eye on Getafe, Inter, Atletico and Egypt.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 27.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

The only interesting movements till now for Today are:

1) Milan vs Udineze, the home team's odds are going up from 1,55 (Lay) to 1,61 (Back) - medium liquidity. I see a trend here.

2) Sevilla vs Deportivo La Corunia, the home team's odds went down from 1,7 (Back) to 1,66 (Lay) -  good liquidity.

I will update 


Update1 Sevilla is going to the opposite direction now I can see a trend here going upwards.
Also I see huge amounts laying Manchester Utd. This would make the odds go up...
Update 2 Milan is going well. Man Utd odds are going downstairs. Sevilla came back down
Update 3  I have wasted nearly all day for a losing scratch. Better next time. The good thing about pre-match trading is that when things go against you it is easy (if there is any discipline) to close position with a small loss. I am thinking to trade more matches in  the day in order to spread further the small risk. 
I don't know if it is better to concentrate to one or two matches or trade on more than three would do any better. We will see... 

PRE-MATCH TRADING 26.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today, there are plenty of matches but I am planning to wait some hours in order to see at which matches of the minor English divisions, punters are going to invest. There are also some bigger matches of English Premier League and Italian Cup.
I will watch and post later, stay tuned

Big movements at

1) Portsmouth vs West Ham, the home team's odds came down to 2,44 (Lay) from 2,58 (Back) that was this morning - good liquidity.

2) Bolton vs Burnley, the home team's odds went up to 1,9 (Back) from 1,8 (Lay) that was this morning -  good liquidity.

3) Sheffield Utd vs Reading, the home team's odds went up to 2,04 (Back) from 1,91 (Lay) that was this morning - medium liquidity.

I did not catch any trend and I will be watching them in order to open a position later

PRE-MATCH TRADING 25.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today as we don't have plenty of choices I will follow:

   

1) Egypt vs Cameroon, Egypt' s odds (2,46) are moving down, good liquidity.
2) Kerkyra vs Olympiakos Volou, the home team's odds (2,3) are moving down, medium liquidity.

The last days we had big succes in our choices I hope that all of you could trade in a positive balance


Update1: Stop loss at Kerkira. Close position and reconsider if I re-open in this match. 

Update2: Stop loss also at Egypt. Big upwards movement of the odds but unfortunately I hadn't got the time to follow. Now the odds are up to 2,64 (back) and 2,66 (lay) !!!


If only I could watch the odds all the time!!! Egypt made a HUGE movement and was a nice opportunity for a nice profit. 
Unfortunately I came out with a loss because I could not watch the odds from my office.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 24.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today we have plenty of choices:

   

1) Stoke Ciy vs Arsenal, Arsenal' s odds from 1,90 are moving down, great liquidity.
2) Genoa vs Atalanta, the home team's odds (1,98) are moving up, great liquidity.
3) Angola vs Ghana, Ghana' s odds are climbing from 3,35, great liquidity.

Watch out for the movements. It is essential to watch the odds all the time till the closing of a position.


Update 1: one hour after my post all the odds are moving to the right direction. Already profit has been generated!!! The most conservative traders even now can close their positions and go for a nice Sunday cup of coffe with friends and family!!! 

PRE-MATCH TRADING 23.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today we have plenty of choices:

   

1) Deportivo La Corunia vs Atl Bilbao, the home team's odds (2,42) are moving up, good liquidity 

2) Cardiff vs Leicester, the home team' s odds (2,28) are moving down, poor liquidity.
3) Ergotelis vs Levadiakos, the home team's odds (1,77) are moving up, poor liquidity.

I will keep on mind the rules and if the odds are going to the wrong direction I will reconsider my positioning.

I set my Stop loss to 2-3 ticks in order to save my bank.

This system is very good for building a nice bankroll.

I will post more about the theory of pre-match trading and the rules I use. 

Check often for my updates!!!


Update 1: Great movement on Ergotelis match and some good movement on Deportivo. Positive balance again!!!
I ve closed my position on Cardiff as the odds are not moving at all.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 22.1.2010, MATCH TO FOLLOW

Today also there are not interesting things happening in the football world. 

The only significant movement i could see is in the match between FSV Frankfurt vs G FURT. as G FURT's odds went  this morning down from 2,44 to 2,28. 

Can those odds go up or down from now on? 

I will follow and post later an update. 

Feel free to make your comments.

Update: It is going further down!!!

PRE-MATCH TRADING 21.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today there are not many games to select. Till now i do not see any significant trend but I would be interested into the following  two matches because I think that there would be some movement:

1) Cameroon vs Tunisia, Cameroon team' s odds (1,92) could change. By now I can see a small down movement of the odds . Good liquidity.
2) Satander vs Osasuna there is not a movement but I think that  will change during the day. I feel that this match will perform a significant swing today. The home team's odds are at 2,16 (back)  and 2,18 (lay),  liquidity just over 6.683 euros.

I would not open now a position. I would wait a little more.

VERY INTERESTING SWING

Very interesting swing at Liverpool' s odds. Till now the odds have fallen 13 ticks (2,60 - 2,34)!!!! Take a look here for the details: Liverpool's CASE STUDY

PRE-MATCH TRADING 20.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:

1) Mallorca vs Getafe, the home team' s odds (1,97) are moving down, good liquidity.
2) Deportivo La Corunia vs Sevilla, the home team's odds (2,90) are moving up, medium liquidity

3) Atromitos vs Giannena, Atromitos's odds (1,87) are moving down, poor liquidity.

If the odds of a match are going to the opposite direction I will reconsider my positioning . I will set my stop loss to 2-3 ticks.


Update: Positive balance to our selections.

WORK IN OFFICE

Too much work in my office so i am not able to watch the odds.

I apologise to all of you

PRE-MATCH TRADING 18.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:

1) Angola vs Algeria, Angola's team' s odds (2,46) are moving down, decent liquidity. Algeria odds (3,34) are moving up

2) Pierikos vs Kerkyra, the home team's odds (3,1) are moving down, poor liquidity

3) Rostok vs Bielefeld, Rostok's odds (2,74) are moving up, poor liquidity. In this case, a change of the favourite has occurred

Update 1 Watch out Pierikos odds as they are going up. Close position and reconsider

Update 2 Rostok odds went to 2,86 do not get greedy...

Update 3 Here comes Angola 2,38 (Back) 2,40 (Lay) goood

PRE-MATCH TRADING 17.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:

1) Parma vs Udinese, the home team' s odds (2,28) are moving up, great liquidity. Udinese odds (3,65) are moving down
2) Satander Valliadolid, the home team's odds (1,99) are moving down slowly, great liquidity
3) Malaga vs Getafe, Getafe's odds (2,84) are moving down slowly, great liquidity

update: The wind does not blow at all today. No movement. I am closing all positions as I have to disconnect from the internet. 

I never never never leave a trade open. 

WHAT ON EARTH IS GOING ON?

Today's match from a minor Greek division with 106.430 Euros matched and a huge falling.

Are you kidding me...?

EVERTON ODDS TODAY 30 min BEFORE KICK OFF

Falling for profit

PRE-MATCH TRADING 16.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:

1) Everton vs Manchester City, the home team' s odds (2,88) are moving down, great liquidity
2) Osasuna vs Espanyol , Espanyol's odds (4,2) are moving up, good liquidity.

I will keep on watching and I will update as soon as i can maybe with some other matches too.

Update: Good trade could be done at Everton's match as odds fall to 1,74 (1,76 lay). I have closed earlier with smaller profit. Small loss at Osasuna' s match as the back odds stayed at 4.1

CASE STUDY 7 PRE-MATCH TRADING LIVERPOOL vs TOTTENHAM 20.1.2010

Watching the odds of todays match between Stoke City vs Liverpool I felt the punters disapointment of Liverpool. Midweak FA CUP defeat against Reading affected the odds big time. The team has millions of problems and this from the betting point of view its easy to be seen.

So this situation stimulates me to start studing Liverpool' s odds for the match against Tottenham at 20.1.2010.

TRADING WITHOUT RISK / PRE-MATCH TRADING 15.1.2010 BIG FALLING -

Big movement before the kick off!!

PRE-MATCH TRADING 15.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:
1) Bayern Munich vs Hoffenheim the home team 's odds (1,49) are moving down, great liquidity.
2) Olympiakos Volou vs Ethnikos, the home team' s odds (1,38) are moving down, great liquidity
3) Union Berlin vs Oberhausen , the home team's odds (1,78) are moving down, good liquidity

I will update as soon as i can.

Update 1: Great profit at the match Olympiakos Volou vs Ethnikos the odds from 1,38 have fallen to 1,21 (Lay)!!! Incredible! Due to the great liquidity of the market I could get matched big stakes.
The odds of Union Berlin have fallen to 1,73 (Lay) and now are at 1,75 (Lay) some profit also there.
Stop loss at Bayern Munich since i closed my position at 1,49 (Lay) in order to make a bigger stake to Olympiakos Volou.
Today was great!!

DISCIPLINE AND SOME GUIDELINES FOR PRE-MATCH TRADING

The plurality of people that are involved in betting or trading are losing money. This happens, in my opinion, because punters plurality are suffering from lack of discipline.
OK but discipline to what?? The answer is discipline to a plan - strategy. Get a plan and stick to it. Modify or quit your plan only if it proves unsuccessful. If it proves successful, stick and follow its rules with discipline.

Here are some guidelines that i keep in my mind:

• Choose a strategy and follow with discipline (you can paper trade first)
• Choose a specific stalking plan which doesn't put in danger your bankroll by your first defeats and it generates permanent profit.
  
• Do not play with money you do not afford to lose. Do not play with your rent money.
• Do not try to get rich in one or two days. (Otherwise play lotto).
  
• Do not run after your loss.
  
• Don't get greedy if you start gaining some profit
• Keep records of your betting performance. Tracking your results can help you improve your strategy or find out the loopholes of your plan.
• Study the movements of the odds. Try to find out which are the factors that make the market move.
• Be informed. Learn the news of the teams and players. Injuries, bad form or weather can influence the odds.
• Don' t bet or trade the odds of your favorite team or player. Be neutral and don' t get carried away by your emotions.
  
• Don' t follow tipsters or such kind of services. Trust yourself. If you do not learn how to take your own decisions it is better not to get involved to a bet. Trust your self and be confident.

Feel free to add new lines to the list with your comments

PRE-MATCH TRADING 14.1.2010

Not big movements today (till now)
minor changes to:
1) Lazio vs Palermo
2) Blackburn vs Aston Villa
3) Udinese vs Luminese
4) Fioredina vs Kievo

All matches have decent liquidity but the movements are too small so it would be very irresponsible from my part to post any prediction about the trends (trends have not been formatted yet).

I would not trade today under these conditions. If the conditions change I will update.

Update 1: From the above matches serious movement has been made to Udinese' s odds they went from 1,37 to 1,46. Big 9 ticks movement.
Two divisions separate the two teams but at the previous round Lumezzane has nailed Atalanta. Udinese suffers from lack of morality and is close to the relegation zone in Serie A

TOMORROW

Today I am having too much work in my office so I am not able to make any selection.

Tomorrow I hope that i will be able to study and post my selections.

I apologize to all of you

PRE-MATCH TRADING 12.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today it is a bit difficult to make our selections because betfair's site was down for maintenance.
Anyway my today's selections are:
1) Birmingham vs Nottingham Forrest the home team 's odds (1,91) are moving down, great liquidity.
2) Basel vs Bayern Munich, Bayern's odds (1,87) are moving down, poor liquidity
3) Le Mans vs Bordeaux, Bordeaux's odds (1,92) are moving down, good liquidity
I will update as soon as i can.
It is essential not to forget to set a stop loss barrier.
Also in such kind of trading we must be watching the odds in order to close our position if the bad scenario comes over, otherwise the odds can fly to the opposite direction causing a big damage in our bank.

Update 1 : Already the picks have generated profit during the day.
Birmingham was very tricky because the odds went down to 1,87 and then climbed back to 2,04. In this case I have just scratched the odds.
Patience needed!!!

PRE-MATCH TRADING 11.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today there are some matches which have made some remarkable movement.

1) Manchester City vs Blackburn, the home team 's odds (1,5) are moving up, great liquidity.
2) Belenenses vs Setumbal, the home team's odds (2,06) are moving down, medium liquidity
3) Anagenisi Karditsas vs Agrotikos, the home team's odds (2,08) are moving up, poor liquidity
4) Galipoli vs Modena, the home team's odds (2,64) are moving up, poor liquidity

Update 1: Huge profits at Galipoli's match. The odds have climbed at 2,92!!! The other trades where profitable too (excl .Belenences that did not change!).

cut your losses and LET YOUR PROFITS RIDE!!

CASE STUDY 6 PRE-MATCH TRADING DEPORTIVO LACORUNA vs OSASUNA - PRIMERA DIVISIONE

Deportivos odds made a rally which caused an upwards trend. Began from 1,92 and today is at 2,06. Now has started a falling trend which stoped at 2,02. Looking at the other bookies i see that they are giving away Deportivo's odds at 1,87 - 1,91. Probably this means that the odds are going to fall. I would back Depor, setting my stop loss at 2 ticks.

Update1 : Stop loss saved the bank. Depor odds flew to 2.18. Thats why i always say about the implementation of a stop loss strategy and a reconsideration of the positioning when things go to the opposite direction.

CASE STUDY 5 PRE-MATCH TRADING 9.1.2010 @ CHAMPIONSHIP - CARDIFF vs BLACKPOOL

Very interesting reaction at the championships match Cardiff vs Blackpool. At late night yesterday punters could back Cardiff at 1,90. Today morning the price is falling and now it is at 1,81 (1,82 Lay). Good game for Pre-Match Trading.
For Cardif Rae, Bothrod, Ledley, McNaughton and Kennedy are expected to be passed fit and on the other hand Blackpool's Evatt and Edwards are both suspended.
It seems that there is a clear trend in the market for Cardiffs team.

Liquidity is pretty good at 20,000 Euros

Update 1: 4:30 hours before kick off: The price is drifting to the opposite direction as punters are starting to lay Cardiff. Oportunity to take advantage of the trend

CASE STUDY 4: pre-match trading @ COPA DEL REI: MALAGA vs GETAFE

Remarkable movement of Gatefe odds today from 3,00 to 2,7. I think that there is plenty of space for the odds to go further down...Nice opportunity for Pre-Match Trading
Malaga confronts some serious problems with injuries and rests at the bottom of Primera Divisione.

Update 1: 30 minutes before the kick off punters can back Getafe at 2,48!! Huge movement. Now watch out for last minutes lays (big players closing positions with huge amounts) because it could make the odds drift to the opposite direction.

CASE STUDY 3: COPA DEL REI: BARCELONA vs SEVILLA

Today there is also another interesting match between Barcelona and Sevilla for the "COPA DEL REI". Punters are hugely backing Barcelona and this has made the odd to fall from 1.52 that was yesterday to the current 1.44
Lets see if there is any space to go down even though we have to deal with a big derby. Would it be a good opportunity for Pre-Match Trading as punters will keep betting on this event?.

The liquidity is very good because over 700.000 Euros are already matched in the market.

I wont forget to set 2 ticks stop loss

UPDATE 1st: 2 hours before the start the odds went down just one tick and now 30 minutes before the kick off they went back to 1.44. Lets see what is going to happen the next 30 minutes.
UPDATE 2nd: At the kick off Barcelona's backing odds where at 1.43.

CARLING CUP: BLACKBURN vs ASTON VILLA

Today, 5.1.2010 there is a match for the Carling Cup, Blackburn vs Aston Villa. If Aston Villa show some character and come away with a good result it will affect, in a positive way, the price of the game with Wigan at 9.1.2010. Blackburn today will be aggressive as manager Sam Allardyce has sacrificed FA CUP for Carling CUP...

2nd CASE STUDY: PANIONIOS PANATHINAIKOS A1 BASKETBALL 3.1.2010

Lay Panathinaikos at 1.10. Big formation problems for the favourite due to injuries of significant players (Diamantidis, Pekovic etc).

UPDATE: one minute before the start of the game we can back Panathinaikos at 1.18!!! great!

UPDATE 2: The funny thing is that Pekovic is playing!!!

TRADING WITHOUT RISK

Pre-Match Trading offers to us something very important which makes the strategy to differ from straight betting or in play trading.

When a punter is placing a bet, he risks all the amount of his bet.

When a trader is trading in play he is risking a big amount of his bet because of the volatility of the odds.
In play odds normally have somewhere to go, up or down depending on the bet.
If an in play trader backs, for example, the draw at 3.15 in order to wait some minutes into the game and then trade out laying the draw at 3.00 he is risking a big amount of his bet because in those minutes a goal could come in. Hey come on its football after all who can be sure about things? If a goal comes in then the draw would rise up to 4.5 - 5.5 so the damage for the trader who wants to close his position, could be really big!

My pre-match trading strategy relies on the steady psychology of the odds. Before the start of the match, normally, there is not volatility in the markets. So things can be pretty much predicted. A favourite remains a favourite and an outsider remains an outsider because history can't be changed!

I have put the word "normally" in bold and italics why? I will explain in future posts...be patient

1st CASE STUDY: Wigan - Aston Villa @ January 9 2010

Aston Villa at the exchanges today can be backed at 2.44 . Wigan is a fighting home team but i feel that punters near the day of the match will back the villans. So what happens when punters back hugely a team??

Answer: Aston Villa' s price will go doooooooooooowwwwwwwwnnnnn. Don't get greedy, look for 2-5 ticks. Also set your stop loss also at 2 ticks.

Attention!!! I am posting before the start of the FA CUP games between Aston Villa vs Blackburn and Wigan vs Hull. If Aston Villa today has a bad result, will make the 2.44 (price of the match with Wigan) drift to the opposite direction. If Wigan today has a bad game with Hull I expect the price of the match with Aston Villa to move early.

So if there is decent liquidity I would open my position accordingly as i watch live the game between Aston Villa vs Blackburn and Wigan vs Hull.

Update 3.1.2010 Aston Villa's odds are shortening. Now we could lay at 2.42 but lets see what happens if we wait a little more...

Update 5.1.2010 Aston Villa' s price is drifting to the opposite direction. Lay has raised up to 2.48 with a tension to rise even higher. On the other hand other bookies are keeping the odds down to 2.3 (Expect) and 2.15 (William Hill). Let's see what will happen at the day of the match...

Update 7.1.2010 Aston Villa s price is going again down. Now punters can back at 2.42

Update 9.1.2010: Match has been POSTPONED due to failure of the heating system at the stadium.

LIQUIDITY

Watch out for markets with decent liquidity. This means that if we are betting several days before the event, the matched amount of money in the exchange must be over 5.000 euros. (decent liquidity in play in my opinion is over 50.000 euros) Anyway we must choose games from bigger leagues that we are sure that are going to achieve a good liquidity before the start of the game. We want decent liquidity because before the start of the game we must close our position so there must be some money waiting to be matched in the market.

PRE-MATCH TRADING

After many kind requests i have decided to create this blog in order to help all of you (and myself of course) in the section of pre-match trading.

WHAT IS PRE - MATCH TRADING

Practically speaking "pre - match trading" means odd trading of a given match - game (could be football, basketball, tennis etc) before it starts. A punter can trade the odds of a game at the betting exchange services (betfair, betdaq, wbx, betsson etc) .

In my next posts i will try to explain why this kind of trading is a very low risk strategy concerning a punters bankroll. Furthermore i will be posting my game selections according to my own strategy.

Usually, i open a position (back or lay) several days before the start of the event and i am closing my position when 2-5 ticks come to my favour. This means that i usually go for a 2-5 ticks profit.

Happy 2010!!
I am wishing Health and Hapiness for Everyone!!!