PRE-MATCH TRADING 31.1.2010

Big movement at Arsenal vs Manchester Utd. The home teams odds have fallen from 2,7 to 2,50. It has some air to fall further.

TODAY 30.1.2010 TESTING NEW THINGS IN PRE-MATCH TRADING

Today I will alterate a bit of my strategy just for testing reasons. I will watch odds movements and i will try to trade the odds within the hour before the kick off.
Lets see...

PRE-MATCH TRADING 29.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Not a good variety of matches today. Till now we do not have any significant movements at the odds.

I will be watching Hamburg Fortuna, Duisburg and G Furt's odds as the kick off time approaches...

Update1 Duisburg is going down from 2,64 (back) to  2,56 (lay) good liquidity

PRE-MATCH TRADING 28.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Big movement at Ghana vs Nigerias odds!!! Nigerias odds are going dowwwwwwwwn!! In this case we had a change on the favourite!!! 20 minutes before tha start of the game.

Here is a photo of the rally

Update 1: I am not really interested in today's matches. Only at Atletico Madrits match there was some movement that i could not take advantage of.

Maybe some movement is going to occur later. I will have an eye on Getafe, Inter, Atletico and Egypt.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 27.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

The only interesting movements till now for Today are:

1) Milan vs Udineze, the home team's odds are going up from 1,55 (Lay) to 1,61 (Back) - medium liquidity. I see a trend here.

2) Sevilla vs Deportivo La Corunia, the home team's odds went down from 1,7 (Back) to 1,66 (Lay) -  good liquidity.

I will update 


Update1 Sevilla is going to the opposite direction now I can see a trend here going upwards.
Also I see huge amounts laying Manchester Utd. This would make the odds go up...
Update 2 Milan is going well. Man Utd odds are going downstairs. Sevilla came back down
Update 3  I have wasted nearly all day for a losing scratch. Better next time. The good thing about pre-match trading is that when things go against you it is easy (if there is any discipline) to close position with a small loss. I am thinking to trade more matches in  the day in order to spread further the small risk. 
I don't know if it is better to concentrate to one or two matches or trade on more than three would do any better. We will see... 

PRE-MATCH TRADING 26.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today, there are plenty of matches but I am planning to wait some hours in order to see at which matches of the minor English divisions, punters are going to invest. There are also some bigger matches of English Premier League and Italian Cup.
I will watch and post later, stay tuned

Big movements at

1) Portsmouth vs West Ham, the home team's odds came down to 2,44 (Lay) from 2,58 (Back) that was this morning - good liquidity.

2) Bolton vs Burnley, the home team's odds went up to 1,9 (Back) from 1,8 (Lay) that was this morning -  good liquidity.

3) Sheffield Utd vs Reading, the home team's odds went up to 2,04 (Back) from 1,91 (Lay) that was this morning - medium liquidity.

I did not catch any trend and I will be watching them in order to open a position later

PRE-MATCH TRADING 25.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today as we don't have plenty of choices I will follow:

   

1) Egypt vs Cameroon, Egypt' s odds (2,46) are moving down, good liquidity.
2) Kerkyra vs Olympiakos Volou, the home team's odds (2,3) are moving down, medium liquidity.

The last days we had big succes in our choices I hope that all of you could trade in a positive balance


Update1: Stop loss at Kerkira. Close position and reconsider if I re-open in this match. 

Update2: Stop loss also at Egypt. Big upwards movement of the odds but unfortunately I hadn't got the time to follow. Now the odds are up to 2,64 (back) and 2,66 (lay) !!!


If only I could watch the odds all the time!!! Egypt made a HUGE movement and was a nice opportunity for a nice profit. 
Unfortunately I came out with a loss because I could not watch the odds from my office.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 24.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today we have plenty of choices:

   

1) Stoke Ciy vs Arsenal, Arsenal' s odds from 1,90 are moving down, great liquidity.
2) Genoa vs Atalanta, the home team's odds (1,98) are moving up, great liquidity.
3) Angola vs Ghana, Ghana' s odds are climbing from 3,35, great liquidity.

Watch out for the movements. It is essential to watch the odds all the time till the closing of a position.


Update 1: one hour after my post all the odds are moving to the right direction. Already profit has been generated!!! The most conservative traders even now can close their positions and go for a nice Sunday cup of coffe with friends and family!!! 

PRE-MATCH TRADING 23.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today we have plenty of choices:

   

1) Deportivo La Corunia vs Atl Bilbao, the home team's odds (2,42) are moving up, good liquidity 

2) Cardiff vs Leicester, the home team' s odds (2,28) are moving down, poor liquidity.
3) Ergotelis vs Levadiakos, the home team's odds (1,77) are moving up, poor liquidity.

I will keep on mind the rules and if the odds are going to the wrong direction I will reconsider my positioning.

I set my Stop loss to 2-3 ticks in order to save my bank.

This system is very good for building a nice bankroll.

I will post more about the theory of pre-match trading and the rules I use. 

Check often for my updates!!!


Update 1: Great movement on Ergotelis match and some good movement on Deportivo. Positive balance again!!!
I ve closed my position on Cardiff as the odds are not moving at all.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 22.1.2010, MATCH TO FOLLOW

Today also there are not interesting things happening in the football world. 

The only significant movement i could see is in the match between FSV Frankfurt vs G FURT. as G FURT's odds went  this morning down from 2,44 to 2,28. 

Can those odds go up or down from now on? 

I will follow and post later an update. 

Feel free to make your comments.

Update: It is going further down!!!

PRE-MATCH TRADING 21.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today there are not many games to select. Till now i do not see any significant trend but I would be interested into the following  two matches because I think that there would be some movement:

1) Cameroon vs Tunisia, Cameroon team' s odds (1,92) could change. By now I can see a small down movement of the odds . Good liquidity.
2) Satander vs Osasuna there is not a movement but I think that  will change during the day. I feel that this match will perform a significant swing today. The home team's odds are at 2,16 (back)  and 2,18 (lay),  liquidity just over 6.683 euros.

I would not open now a position. I would wait a little more.

VERY INTERESTING SWING

Very interesting swing at Liverpool' s odds. Till now the odds have fallen 13 ticks (2,60 - 2,34)!!!! Take a look here for the details: Liverpool's CASE STUDY

PRE-MATCH TRADING 20.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:

1) Mallorca vs Getafe, the home team' s odds (1,97) are moving down, good liquidity.
2) Deportivo La Corunia vs Sevilla, the home team's odds (2,90) are moving up, medium liquidity

3) Atromitos vs Giannena, Atromitos's odds (1,87) are moving down, poor liquidity.

If the odds of a match are going to the opposite direction I will reconsider my positioning . I will set my stop loss to 2-3 ticks.


Update: Positive balance to our selections.

WORK IN OFFICE

Too much work in my office so i am not able to watch the odds.

I apologise to all of you

PRE-MATCH TRADING 18.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:

1) Angola vs Algeria, Angola's team' s odds (2,46) are moving down, decent liquidity. Algeria odds (3,34) are moving up

2) Pierikos vs Kerkyra, the home team's odds (3,1) are moving down, poor liquidity

3) Rostok vs Bielefeld, Rostok's odds (2,74) are moving up, poor liquidity. In this case, a change of the favourite has occurred

Update 1 Watch out Pierikos odds as they are going up. Close position and reconsider

Update 2 Rostok odds went to 2,86 do not get greedy...

Update 3 Here comes Angola 2,38 (Back) 2,40 (Lay) goood

PRE-MATCH TRADING 17.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:

1) Parma vs Udinese, the home team' s odds (2,28) are moving up, great liquidity. Udinese odds (3,65) are moving down
2) Satander Valliadolid, the home team's odds (1,99) are moving down slowly, great liquidity
3) Malaga vs Getafe, Getafe's odds (2,84) are moving down slowly, great liquidity

update: The wind does not blow at all today. No movement. I am closing all positions as I have to disconnect from the internet. 

I never never never leave a trade open. 

WHAT ON EARTH IS GOING ON?

Today's match from a minor Greek division with 106.430 Euros matched and a huge falling.

Are you kidding me...?

EVERTON ODDS TODAY 30 min BEFORE KICK OFF

Falling for profit

PRE-MATCH TRADING 16.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:

1) Everton vs Manchester City, the home team' s odds (2,88) are moving down, great liquidity
2) Osasuna vs Espanyol , Espanyol's odds (4,2) are moving up, good liquidity.

I will keep on watching and I will update as soon as i can maybe with some other matches too.

Update: Good trade could be done at Everton's match as odds fall to 1,74 (1,76 lay). I have closed earlier with smaller profit. Small loss at Osasuna' s match as the back odds stayed at 4.1

CASE STUDY 7 PRE-MATCH TRADING LIVERPOOL vs TOTTENHAM 20.1.2010

Watching the odds of todays match between Stoke City vs Liverpool I felt the punters disapointment of Liverpool. Midweak FA CUP defeat against Reading affected the odds big time. The team has millions of problems and this from the betting point of view its easy to be seen.

So this situation stimulates me to start studing Liverpool' s odds for the match against Tottenham at 20.1.2010.

TRADING WITHOUT RISK / PRE-MATCH TRADING 15.1.2010 BIG FALLING -

Big movement before the kick off!!

PRE-MATCH TRADING 15.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:
1) Bayern Munich vs Hoffenheim the home team 's odds (1,49) are moving down, great liquidity.
2) Olympiakos Volou vs Ethnikos, the home team' s odds (1,38) are moving down, great liquidity
3) Union Berlin vs Oberhausen , the home team's odds (1,78) are moving down, good liquidity

I will update as soon as i can.

Update 1: Great profit at the match Olympiakos Volou vs Ethnikos the odds from 1,38 have fallen to 1,21 (Lay)!!! Incredible! Due to the great liquidity of the market I could get matched big stakes.
The odds of Union Berlin have fallen to 1,73 (Lay) and now are at 1,75 (Lay) some profit also there.
Stop loss at Bayern Munich since i closed my position at 1,49 (Lay) in order to make a bigger stake to Olympiakos Volou.
Today was great!!

DISCIPLINE AND SOME GUIDELINES FOR PRE-MATCH TRADING

The plurality of people that are involved in betting or trading are losing money. This happens, in my opinion, because punters plurality are suffering from lack of discipline.
OK but discipline to what?? The answer is discipline to a plan - strategy. Get a plan and stick to it. Modify or quit your plan only if it proves unsuccessful. If it proves successful, stick and follow its rules with discipline.

Here are some guidelines that i keep in my mind:

• Choose a strategy and follow with discipline (you can paper trade first)
• Choose a specific stalking plan which doesn't put in danger your bankroll by your first defeats and it generates permanent profit.
  
• Do not play with money you do not afford to lose. Do not play with your rent money.
• Do not try to get rich in one or two days. (Otherwise play lotto).
  
• Do not run after your loss.
  
• Don't get greedy if you start gaining some profit
• Keep records of your betting performance. Tracking your results can help you improve your strategy or find out the loopholes of your plan.
• Study the movements of the odds. Try to find out which are the factors that make the market move.
• Be informed. Learn the news of the teams and players. Injuries, bad form or weather can influence the odds.
• Don' t bet or trade the odds of your favorite team or player. Be neutral and don' t get carried away by your emotions.
  
• Don' t follow tipsters or such kind of services. Trust yourself. If you do not learn how to take your own decisions it is better not to get involved to a bet. Trust your self and be confident.

Feel free to add new lines to the list with your comments

PRE-MATCH TRADING 14.1.2010

Not big movements today (till now)
minor changes to:
1) Lazio vs Palermo
2) Blackburn vs Aston Villa
3) Udinese vs Luminese
4) Fioredina vs Kievo

All matches have decent liquidity but the movements are too small so it would be very irresponsible from my part to post any prediction about the trends (trends have not been formatted yet).

I would not trade today under these conditions. If the conditions change I will update.

Update 1: From the above matches serious movement has been made to Udinese' s odds they went from 1,37 to 1,46. Big 9 ticks movement.
Two divisions separate the two teams but at the previous round Lumezzane has nailed Atalanta. Udinese suffers from lack of morality and is close to the relegation zone in Serie A

TOMORROW

Today I am having too much work in my office so I am not able to make any selection.

Tomorrow I hope that i will be able to study and post my selections.

I apologize to all of you

PRE-MATCH TRADING 12.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today it is a bit difficult to make our selections because betfair's site was down for maintenance.
Anyway my today's selections are:
1) Birmingham vs Nottingham Forrest the home team 's odds (1,91) are moving down, great liquidity.
2) Basel vs Bayern Munich, Bayern's odds (1,87) are moving down, poor liquidity
3) Le Mans vs Bordeaux, Bordeaux's odds (1,92) are moving down, good liquidity
I will update as soon as i can.
It is essential not to forget to set a stop loss barrier.
Also in such kind of trading we must be watching the odds in order to close our position if the bad scenario comes over, otherwise the odds can fly to the opposite direction causing a big damage in our bank.

Update 1 : Already the picks have generated profit during the day.
Birmingham was very tricky because the odds went down to 1,87 and then climbed back to 2,04. In this case I have just scratched the odds.
Patience needed!!!

PRE-MATCH TRADING 11.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today there are some matches which have made some remarkable movement.

1) Manchester City vs Blackburn, the home team 's odds (1,5) are moving up, great liquidity.
2) Belenenses vs Setumbal, the home team's odds (2,06) are moving down, medium liquidity
3) Anagenisi Karditsas vs Agrotikos, the home team's odds (2,08) are moving up, poor liquidity
4) Galipoli vs Modena, the home team's odds (2,64) are moving up, poor liquidity

Update 1: Huge profits at Galipoli's match. The odds have climbed at 2,92!!! The other trades where profitable too (excl .Belenences that did not change!).

cut your losses and LET YOUR PROFITS RIDE!!

CASE STUDY 6 PRE-MATCH TRADING DEPORTIVO LACORUNA vs OSASUNA - PRIMERA DIVISIONE

Deportivos odds made a rally which caused an upwards trend. Began from 1,92 and today is at 2,06. Now has started a falling trend which stoped at 2,02. Looking at the other bookies i see that they are giving away Deportivo's odds at 1,87 - 1,91. Probably this means that the odds are going to fall. I would back Depor, setting my stop loss at 2 ticks.

Update1 : Stop loss saved the bank. Depor odds flew to 2.18. Thats why i always say about the implementation of a stop loss strategy and a reconsideration of the positioning when things go to the opposite direction.

CASE STUDY 5 PRE-MATCH TRADING 9.1.2010 @ CHAMPIONSHIP - CARDIFF vs BLACKPOOL

Very interesting reaction at the championships match Cardiff vs Blackpool. At late night yesterday punters could back Cardiff at 1,90. Today morning the price is falling and now it is at 1,81 (1,82 Lay). Good game for Pre-Match Trading.
For Cardif Rae, Bothrod, Ledley, McNaughton and Kennedy are expected to be passed fit and on the other hand Blackpool's Evatt and Edwards are both suspended.
It seems that there is a clear trend in the market for Cardiffs team.

Liquidity is pretty good at 20,000 Euros

Update 1: 4:30 hours before kick off: The price is drifting to the opposite direction as punters are starting to lay Cardiff. Oportunity to take advantage of the trend

CASE STUDY 4: pre-match trading @ COPA DEL REI: MALAGA vs GETAFE

Remarkable movement of Gatefe odds today from 3,00 to 2,7. I think that there is plenty of space for the odds to go further down...Nice opportunity for Pre-Match Trading
Malaga confronts some serious problems with injuries and rests at the bottom of Primera Divisione.

Update 1: 30 minutes before the kick off punters can back Getafe at 2,48!! Huge movement. Now watch out for last minutes lays (big players closing positions with huge amounts) because it could make the odds drift to the opposite direction.

CASE STUDY 3: COPA DEL REI: BARCELONA vs SEVILLA

Today there is also another interesting match between Barcelona and Sevilla for the "COPA DEL REI". Punters are hugely backing Barcelona and this has made the odd to fall from 1.52 that was yesterday to the current 1.44
Lets see if there is any space to go down even though we have to deal with a big derby. Would it be a good opportunity for Pre-Match Trading as punters will keep betting on this event?.

The liquidity is very good because over 700.000 Euros are already matched in the market.

I wont forget to set 2 ticks stop loss

UPDATE 1st: 2 hours before the start the odds went down just one tick and now 30 minutes before the kick off they went back to 1.44. Lets see what is going to happen the next 30 minutes.
UPDATE 2nd: At the kick off Barcelona's backing odds where at 1.43.

CARLING CUP: BLACKBURN vs ASTON VILLA

Today, 5.1.2010 there is a match for the Carling Cup, Blackburn vs Aston Villa. If Aston Villa show some character and come away with a good result it will affect, in a positive way, the price of the game with Wigan at 9.1.2010. Blackburn today will be aggressive as manager Sam Allardyce has sacrificed FA CUP for Carling CUP...

2nd CASE STUDY: PANIONIOS PANATHINAIKOS A1 BASKETBALL 3.1.2010

Lay Panathinaikos at 1.10. Big formation problems for the favourite due to injuries of significant players (Diamantidis, Pekovic etc).

UPDATE: one minute before the start of the game we can back Panathinaikos at 1.18!!! great!

UPDATE 2: The funny thing is that Pekovic is playing!!!

TRADING WITHOUT RISK

Pre-Match Trading offers to us something very important which makes the strategy to differ from straight betting or in play trading.

When a punter is placing a bet, he risks all the amount of his bet.

When a trader is trading in play he is risking a big amount of his bet because of the volatility of the odds.
In play odds normally have somewhere to go, up or down depending on the bet.
If an in play trader backs, for example, the draw at 3.15 in order to wait some minutes into the game and then trade out laying the draw at 3.00 he is risking a big amount of his bet because in those minutes a goal could come in. Hey come on its football after all who can be sure about things? If a goal comes in then the draw would rise up to 4.5 - 5.5 so the damage for the trader who wants to close his position, could be really big!

My pre-match trading strategy relies on the steady psychology of the odds. Before the start of the match, normally, there is not volatility in the markets. So things can be pretty much predicted. A favourite remains a favourite and an outsider remains an outsider because history can't be changed!

I have put the word "normally" in bold and italics why? I will explain in future posts...be patient

1st CASE STUDY: Wigan - Aston Villa @ January 9 2010

Aston Villa at the exchanges today can be backed at 2.44 . Wigan is a fighting home team but i feel that punters near the day of the match will back the villans. So what happens when punters back hugely a team??

Answer: Aston Villa' s price will go doooooooooooowwwwwwwwnnnnn. Don't get greedy, look for 2-5 ticks. Also set your stop loss also at 2 ticks.

Attention!!! I am posting before the start of the FA CUP games between Aston Villa vs Blackburn and Wigan vs Hull. If Aston Villa today has a bad result, will make the 2.44 (price of the match with Wigan) drift to the opposite direction. If Wigan today has a bad game with Hull I expect the price of the match with Aston Villa to move early.

So if there is decent liquidity I would open my position accordingly as i watch live the game between Aston Villa vs Blackburn and Wigan vs Hull.

Update 3.1.2010 Aston Villa's odds are shortening. Now we could lay at 2.42 but lets see what happens if we wait a little more...

Update 5.1.2010 Aston Villa' s price is drifting to the opposite direction. Lay has raised up to 2.48 with a tension to rise even higher. On the other hand other bookies are keeping the odds down to 2.3 (Expect) and 2.15 (William Hill). Let's see what will happen at the day of the match...

Update 7.1.2010 Aston Villa s price is going again down. Now punters can back at 2.42

Update 9.1.2010: Match has been POSTPONED due to failure of the heating system at the stadium.

LIQUIDITY

Watch out for markets with decent liquidity. This means that if we are betting several days before the event, the matched amount of money in the exchange must be over 5.000 euros. (decent liquidity in play in my opinion is over 50.000 euros) Anyway we must choose games from bigger leagues that we are sure that are going to achieve a good liquidity before the start of the game. We want decent liquidity because before the start of the game we must close our position so there must be some money waiting to be matched in the market.

PRE-MATCH TRADING

After many kind requests i have decided to create this blog in order to help all of you (and myself of course) in the section of pre-match trading.

WHAT IS PRE - MATCH TRADING

Practically speaking "pre - match trading" means odd trading of a given match - game (could be football, basketball, tennis etc) before it starts. A punter can trade the odds of a game at the betting exchange services (betfair, betdaq, wbx, betsson etc) .

In my next posts i will try to explain why this kind of trading is a very low risk strategy concerning a punters bankroll. Furthermore i will be posting my game selections according to my own strategy.

Usually, i open a position (back or lay) several days before the start of the event and i am closing my position when 2-5 ticks come to my favour. This means that i usually go for a 2-5 ticks profit.

Happy 2010!!
I am wishing Health and Hapiness for Everyone!!!