Pre-Match Trading - The return!!!

After a very hard week at work that forced me to stay away from writing to my blog, I return hungry for new trading adventures!!!

Lets see what we have for today...

1) Hoffenheim vs Mgladbach. The home team odds are going up!!!Yesterday they were at 1,84 and today morning they went up to 1,90. Medium liquidity. I would follow the trend even if I wont be able to match a big stake here (due to the medium liquidity)

2) Bielefeld vs Duisburg. The home teams odds are falling. They were up to 2,00 and today morning have fallen to 1,94.Poor Liquidity. Small stake also here.

3) Brescia vs Ascoli. By now the market hasn't got much money to get matched so I am going to wait a little more. I think that there will be some movement here. Brescia at the last 6 home games has only one (1) draw and five (5) wins. This is going to affect the odds. I will wait to hear both teams news for injuries.

I will set my stop loss at 3 ticks.

Update: 4 ticks profit from Hoffenheim and 3 from Bielefeld.  Great Return!!!! I did not open position at Brescia's match because of the low liquidity of the market.

Sunday's Selection

After some very hard times at work, today  I ve managed to get back home in order to rest a bit with my family. After the previous week, I need to perform a brain format.
Today there are plenty of matches to choose from but I will focus only on one match:

Bolton vs Tottenham fo the FA Cup. Tottenhams odds are falling from 2,14 (back). Liquidity is great!!
Bolton faces injury problems as Gary Cahill, Ivan Klasnic, Sean Davis and Gavinm Mc Cann are out from today's match.
For Totenham Luka Modric is a doubt so if later news about Mondric change, surely this will affect the odds.

Update: Nice profit, I dont want to get greedy so I am closing my position here at 2,08 (Lay)

DISCIPLINE KEEPS THE BANK SAFE

People who are reading my blog from the start, know by now that one of my bigger concerns is to keep safe my bank.

Keeping the bank safe is helping the trader to avoid anxiety and depression of losing his capital. Ok I know nobody wants or like to lose but the fact is that the plurality (more than 95%) of punters all over the world are losing money every day, more and more till they end consuming their whole bank.

Trading before the start of a match is not a practice that can make the trader wealthy in a week or in a month or in a year but surely under the condition that the trader is following with discipline some "safe" rules, can help keep and why not build up his bankroll. Some punters believe that is easier to generate steady and significant daily income from a big bank than from a small bank.

In my opinion, if a trader is not disciplined, then pre-match trading is needless and can as well as other betting strategies lead him to bankruptcy.

so...:

• ...test your strategy. Testing will lead you to...
• ...set clear rules on your strategy ( for example set your stop loss to some specific ticks, find the factors you can rely before opening your position, set a percentage of your bank that you are going to trade with e.t.c.) and...
• ...keep yourself disciplined following your rules.

 "self-discipline"

Remember you cannot win every day and is inevitable to lose...so try when you lose not to destroy your bank...and something else also important...

...don't try to catch your losses, stop, reconsider, study what went wrong and trade again the next day. 

Sunday Early Match, 7.2.2010

After yesterday's big success I will consentrate in one early match for today:

Birmingham vs Wolves, the home team odds are climbing high from 1,91 (Lay)!! Great liquidity!!

Lets see how it will be today

Update 1: Urahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!! I love it! Now its up to 2(Back) and I am out!!! I do not want to get greedy as I have broken my rules trading with the 60% of my whole bankroll here in one match. As I have already posted in the past, usually I trade with the 60% of my bank spreading the risk over three matches.

I am already out but the odds can climb more. 

Here is the rally:

PRE-MATCH TRADING 6.2.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today we have many interesting games to follow. For the early matches:

1) Liverpool vs Everton, the home teams odds are moving up from 1,90 (Lay). Great liquidity. We deal with a big derby here and the odds are going to move further (could be at any direction so be ready to change position).

2) Wolsburg vs Bayern, Bayern's odds are moving up (slightly). Wolfburg this year  has played some very poor games at home so Punters will definitely back Bayern Munich. I am waiting for a movement here. Great liquidity

3) Triestina vs Sassuolo, Sassuolo is at the head of the division (serie B) and I think that at 3,15 the odds are too high. Here it could change the favourite. The bad thing about this match is that the liquidity is very poor and big stakes won't get matched. I will open my position with smaller stake and if the liquidity gets better I will reconsider.

Update1: Awsome profit with Liverpool!!! 

Bayern is going well as it seems that punters were backing and made the odds to fall.

Nothing on Sassuolo yet but I do not mind because i could get matched only 100 euros. I will wait a little more for Sassuolo closing my position on the others with a nice profit. Good stuff for only 3 hours watching!!
Update 2: Closing position at Sassuolo with loss. The draw odds has fallen causing upward trends at both teams odds. 

Positive balance 

PRE-MATCH TRADING 3.2.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today there are several interesting matches: I will be following:

1) Fulham vs Portsmouth, the home teams odds moved up from 1,80 (Lay). Now they are having a falling trend from 1,90 to 1,86 (back). Great liquidity. I will be trading on the trends

2) Blackpool vs West Brom, West Brom's odds are moving down from 2,45 to 2,3. Now it seems that the odds have stoped moving but probably near the kick off a rally could start again . Great liquidity

3) Leeds vs Tottenham, Tottemham's odds are moving up from 1,90, I am following this trend as well!!! I expect nice movent here.Great liquidity.

I don't forget to set my exit strategy to 2-3 ticks and be disciplined.

Update 1. Great upwards trend for Fulham' odds now at 1,94. Thatssss great!!! 
Update 2. Great downwards moving for Tottenham' s odds from 1,97 now they are at 1,89. Thats a nice day!!!

PRE-MATCH TRADING 1.2.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Poor variety of matches today. I will be following:
1) Sunderland vs Stoke, the home teams odds are moving up from 2,20. Great liquidity
2) Bury vs Rochdale, Rochdale's odds are moving down from 2,56. Medium liquidity

I will be watching for an opportunity at Ravenna and Kerkyra.
At the match between Aachen vs Kaiserslautern could occur a change of the favorite watch out.

Movements usually are bigger as the kick off time is approaching

Update 1 Rochdale after the down movement which have generated a small 3 tick profit, now is going up. I will follow the new trend.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 29.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Not a good variety of matches today. Till now we do not have any significant movements at the odds.

I will be watching Hamburg Fortuna, Duisburg and G Furt's odds as the kick off time approaches...

Update1 Duisburg is going down from 2,64 (back) to  2,56 (lay) good liquidity

PRE-MATCH TRADING 28.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Big movement at Ghana vs Nigerias odds!!! Nigerias odds are going dowwwwwwwwn!! In this case we had a change on the favourite!!! 20 minutes before tha start of the game.

Here is a photo of the rally

Update 1: I am not really interested in today's matches. Only at Atletico Madrits match there was some movement that i could not take advantage of.

Maybe some movement is going to occur later. I will have an eye on Getafe, Inter, Atletico and Egypt.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 27.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

The only interesting movements till now for Today are:

1) Milan vs Udineze, the home team's odds are going up from 1,55 (Lay) to 1,61 (Back) - medium liquidity. I see a trend here.

2) Sevilla vs Deportivo La Corunia, the home team's odds went down from 1,7 (Back) to 1,66 (Lay) -  good liquidity.

I will update 


Update1 Sevilla is going to the opposite direction now I can see a trend here going upwards.
Also I see huge amounts laying Manchester Utd. This would make the odds go up...
Update 2 Milan is going well. Man Utd odds are going downstairs. Sevilla came back down
Update 3  I have wasted nearly all day for a losing scratch. Better next time. The good thing about pre-match trading is that when things go against you it is easy (if there is any discipline) to close position with a small loss. I am thinking to trade more matches in  the day in order to spread further the small risk. 
I don't know if it is better to concentrate to one or two matches or trade on more than three would do any better. We will see... 

PRE-MATCH TRADING 25.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today as we don't have plenty of choices I will follow:

   

1) Egypt vs Cameroon, Egypt' s odds (2,46) are moving down, good liquidity.
2) Kerkyra vs Olympiakos Volou, the home team's odds (2,3) are moving down, medium liquidity.

The last days we had big succes in our choices I hope that all of you could trade in a positive balance


Update1: Stop loss at Kerkira. Close position and reconsider if I re-open in this match. 

Update2: Stop loss also at Egypt. Big upwards movement of the odds but unfortunately I hadn't got the time to follow. Now the odds are up to 2,64 (back) and 2,66 (lay) !!!


If only I could watch the odds all the time!!! Egypt made a HUGE movement and was a nice opportunity for a nice profit. 
Unfortunately I came out with a loss because I could not watch the odds from my office.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 23.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today we have plenty of choices:

   

1) Deportivo La Corunia vs Atl Bilbao, the home team's odds (2,42) are moving up, good liquidity 

2) Cardiff vs Leicester, the home team' s odds (2,28) are moving down, poor liquidity.
3) Ergotelis vs Levadiakos, the home team's odds (1,77) are moving up, poor liquidity.

I will keep on mind the rules and if the odds are going to the wrong direction I will reconsider my positioning.

I set my Stop loss to 2-3 ticks in order to save my bank.

This system is very good for building a nice bankroll.

I will post more about the theory of pre-match trading and the rules I use. 

Check often for my updates!!!


Update 1: Great movement on Ergotelis match and some good movement on Deportivo. Positive balance again!!!
I ve closed my position on Cardiff as the odds are not moving at all.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 21.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today there are not many games to select. Till now i do not see any significant trend but I would be interested into the following  two matches because I think that there would be some movement:

1) Cameroon vs Tunisia, Cameroon team' s odds (1,92) could change. By now I can see a small down movement of the odds . Good liquidity.
2) Satander vs Osasuna there is not a movement but I think that  will change during the day. I feel that this match will perform a significant swing today. The home team's odds are at 2,16 (back)  and 2,18 (lay),  liquidity just over 6.683 euros.

I would not open now a position. I would wait a little more.

VERY INTERESTING SWING

Very interesting swing at Liverpool' s odds. Till now the odds have fallen 13 ticks (2,60 - 2,34)!!!! Take a look here for the details: Liverpool's CASE STUDY

PRE-MATCH TRADING 20.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:

1) Mallorca vs Getafe, the home team' s odds (1,97) are moving down, good liquidity.
2) Deportivo La Corunia vs Sevilla, the home team's odds (2,90) are moving up, medium liquidity

3) Atromitos vs Giannena, Atromitos's odds (1,87) are moving down, poor liquidity.

If the odds of a match are going to the opposite direction I will reconsider my positioning . I will set my stop loss to 2-3 ticks.


Update: Positive balance to our selections.

PRE-MATCH TRADING 17.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:

1) Parma vs Udinese, the home team' s odds (2,28) are moving up, great liquidity. Udinese odds (3,65) are moving down
2) Satander Valliadolid, the home team's odds (1,99) are moving down slowly, great liquidity
3) Malaga vs Getafe, Getafe's odds (2,84) are moving down slowly, great liquidity

update: The wind does not blow at all today. No movement. I am closing all positions as I have to disconnect from the internet. 

I never never never leave a trade open. 

PRE-MATCH TRADING 16.1.2010 MATCHES TO FOLLOW

My today's selections are:

1) Everton vs Manchester City, the home team' s odds (2,88) are moving down, great liquidity
2) Osasuna vs Espanyol , Espanyol's odds (4,2) are moving up, good liquidity.

I will keep on watching and I will update as soon as i can maybe with some other matches too.

Update: Good trade could be done at Everton's match as odds fall to 1,74 (1,76 lay). I have closed earlier with smaller profit. Small loss at Osasuna' s match as the back odds stayed at 4.1

CASE STUDY 7 PRE-MATCH TRADING LIVERPOOL vs TOTTENHAM 20.1.2010

Watching the odds of todays match between Stoke City vs Liverpool I felt the punters disapointment of Liverpool. Midweak FA CUP defeat against Reading affected the odds big time. The team has millions of problems and this from the betting point of view its easy to be seen.

So this situation stimulates me to start studing Liverpool' s odds for the match against Tottenham at 20.1.2010.

DISCIPLINE AND SOME GUIDELINES FOR PRE-MATCH TRADING

The plurality of people that are involved in betting or trading are losing money. This happens, in my opinion, because punters plurality are suffering from lack of discipline.
OK but discipline to what?? The answer is discipline to a plan - strategy. Get a plan and stick to it. Modify or quit your plan only if it proves unsuccessful. If it proves successful, stick and follow its rules with discipline.

Here are some guidelines that i keep in my mind:

• Choose a strategy and follow with discipline (you can paper trade first)
• Choose a specific stalking plan which doesn't put in danger your bankroll by your first defeats and it generates permanent profit.
  
• Do not play with money you do not afford to lose. Do not play with your rent money.
• Do not try to get rich in one or two days. (Otherwise play lotto).
  
• Do not run after your loss.
  
• Don't get greedy if you start gaining some profit
• Keep records of your betting performance. Tracking your results can help you improve your strategy or find out the loopholes of your plan.
• Study the movements of the odds. Try to find out which are the factors that make the market move.
• Be informed. Learn the news of the teams and players. Injuries, bad form or weather can influence the odds.
• Don' t bet or trade the odds of your favorite team or player. Be neutral and don' t get carried away by your emotions.
  
• Don' t follow tipsters or such kind of services. Trust yourself. If you do not learn how to take your own decisions it is better not to get involved to a bet. Trust your self and be confident.

Feel free to add new lines to the list with your comments

PRE-MATCH TRADING 14.1.2010

Not big movements today (till now)
minor changes to:
1) Lazio vs Palermo
2) Blackburn vs Aston Villa
3) Udinese vs Luminese
4) Fioredina vs Kievo

All matches have decent liquidity but the movements are too small so it would be very irresponsible from my part to post any prediction about the trends (trends have not been formatted yet).

I would not trade today under these conditions. If the conditions change I will update.

Update 1: From the above matches serious movement has been made to Udinese' s odds they went from 1,37 to 1,46. Big 9 ticks movement.
Two divisions separate the two teams but at the previous round Lumezzane has nailed Atalanta. Udinese suffers from lack of morality and is close to the relegation zone in Serie A