This blog is aiming to explore the inner psychology of the odds before the start of a match.

When and why are they moving??

Can we take advantage of this movement??

Showing posts with label liquidity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label liquidity. Show all posts

Thursday, January 14, 2010

PRE-MATCH TRADING 14.1.2010

Not big movements today (till now)
minor changes to:
1) Lazio vs Palermo
2) Blackburn vs Aston Villa
3) Udinese vs Luminese
4) Fioredina vs Kievo

All matches have decent liquidity but the movements are too small so it would be very irresponsible from my part to post any prediction about the trends (trends have not been formatted yet).

I would not trade today under these conditions. If the conditions change I will update.

Update 1: From the above matches serious movement has been made to Udinese' s odds they went from 1,37 to 1,46. Big 9 ticks movement.
Two divisions separate the two teams but at the previous round Lumezzane has nailed Atalanta. Udinese suffers from lack of morality and is close to the relegation zone in Serie A

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

PRE-MATCH TRADING 12.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today it is a bit difficult to make our selections because betfair's site was down for maintenance.
Anyway my today's selections are:
1) Birmingham vs Nottingham Forrest the home team 's odds (1,91) are moving down, great liquidity.
2) Basel vs Bayern Munich, Bayern's odds (1,87) are moving down, poor liquidity
3) Le Mans vs Bordeaux, Bordeaux's odds (1,92) are moving down, good liquidity
I will update as soon as i can.
It is essential not to forget to set a stop loss barrier.
Also in such kind of trading we must be watching the odds in order to close our position if the bad scenario comes over, otherwise the odds can fly to the opposite direction causing a big damage in our bank.

Update 1 : Already the picks have generated profit during the day.
Birmingham was very tricky because the odds went down to 1,87 and then climbed back to 2,04. In this case I have just scratched the odds.
Patience needed!!!

Monday, January 11, 2010

PRE-MATCH TRADING 11.1.2010, MATCHES TO FOLLOW

Today there are some matches which have made some remarkable movement.

1) Manchester City vs Blackburn, the home team 's odds (1,5) are moving up, great liquidity.
2) Belenenses vs Setumbal, the home team's odds (2,06) are moving down, medium liquidity
3) Anagenisi Karditsas vs Agrotikos, the home team's odds (2,08) are moving up, poor liquidity
4) Galipoli vs Modena, the home team's odds (2,64) are moving up, poor liquidity

Update 1: Huge profits at Galipoli's match. The odds have climbed at 2,92!!! The other trades where profitable too (excl .Belenences that did not change!).

cut your losses and LET YOUR PROFITS RIDE!!

Friday, January 1, 2010

LIQUIDITY

Watch out for markets with decent liquidity. This means that if we are betting several days before the event, the matched amount of money in the exchange must be over 5.000 euros. (decent liquidity in play in my opinion is over 50.000 euros) Anyway we must choose games from bigger leagues that we are sure that are going to achieve a good liquidity before the start of the game. We want decent liquidity because before the start of the game we must close our position so there must be some money waiting to be matched in the market.